Bitcoin Bull Market Could Be Peaking Sooner Than Expected
Bitcoin’s latest surge in price has raised eyebrows amid a noticeable drop in the number of whale wallets—addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC. This divergence echoes the 2021 bull market pattern that preceded a sharp decline. On-chain analytics firm Alphractal reports the same phenomenon unfolding now, offering a cautionary signal to investors X (formerly Twitter)+7AMBCrypto+7AMBCrypto+7.
Alphractal analyst Joao Wedson argues that the Bitcoin bull run may only have weeks left. According to his analysis, the number of huge BTC wallets has dipped under 90, suggesting a major cycle peak could arrive by October AMBCrypto+2AMBCrypto+2AMBCrypto+2.
Since mid‑July, Bitcoin has successfully held above $117,000, but Wedson’s fractal‑based timeline aligns with a bearish outlook: price surging even as whale activity declines—a classic market top formation.
Historical Patterns and Fractal Timelines
Crypto analysts and historical models—especially the “tick‑tock fractal”—consistently show Bitcoin bull markets peaking 518–546 days after halving events. Given the most recent halving occurred in April 2024, many experts point to a peak window around October 2025 AMBCrypto+1AMBCrypto+1Cointelegraph+5Cointelegraph+5Cointelegraph+5.
Rekt Capital, a respected crypto analyst, emphasizes that traders should lean on these time-tested cycles rather than new, emotional narratives. He forecasts a potential bull cycle culmination in late September to mid‑October CryptoRank+11Cointelegraph+11Cointelegraph+11.
If history holds, Bitcoin price may rise to $130K–$150K, or even toward $200K, before the final peak runs dry pintu.co.id+4The Crypto Times+4AMBCrypto+4.
Contrasting Signals: Institutional Demand Still Rising
Despite these bearish technical patterns, institutional and ETF flows continue to pour into Bitcoin—muddying a simple fractal-based prediction.
Public companies like MicroStrategy and Mara Holding remain aggressive buyers. MicroStrategy added approximately $2.46 billion in BTC, raising its holdings to over $74 billion—a 60% surge—while Mara Holding added $950 million in a single day. Collectively, 42 public firms now control over 4.28% of all Bitcoin supply, with MicroStrategy accounting for nearly 2.9% htx.com+3AMBCrypto+3AMBCrypto+3.
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have maintained bullish momentum with total assets under management around $151 billion. July alone saw $4.83 billion in inflows versus just $541 million in outflows—indicating continued deepening institutional adoption AMBCrypto+2AMBCrypto+2AMBCrypto+2.
These inflows may dampen the impact of fractal-based sell signals, suggesting any market cooldown could be a shallow pullback, not a full reversal.
On-Chain Metrics Offer Long-Term Perspective
New versus old coin activity also points to room for sustained strength. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., newer coins now account for about 30% of on-chain activity—a level far below last year’s peaks near 70%. Importantly, long-term holders are not capitulating, which helps stabilize supply demand dynamics AMBCrypto+2AMBCrypto+2AMBCrypto+2Cointelegraph+1Cointelegraph+1.
This equilibrium—between fresh investor desire and cautious selling by old holders—supports continued upward pressure. With institutions accumulating and retail demand still growing, price momentum may outlast pessimistic fractal signals for now.
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- Bitcoin bull run in danger
- Analyst predicts end by October
- Whale wallets decline
- Institutional buying and ETF inflows
- Halving cycle fractal October peak
- Bitcoin price prediction $130K–$150K
Why This Analysis Matters
- Navigating mixed signals: Fractal models warn of a near-term bull run end, but institutional flows and on-chain health suggest resilience.
- Strategic timing: Investors should watch for signs of whale wallet declines and institutional accumulation to calibrate risk.
- Market maturity evidence: Continued ETF inflow indicates mainstream and institutional trust—even amid fractal-based caution.
Final Thoughts
While technical forecasts using fractal models suggest the Bitcoin cycle could top out by October, robust institutional demand and strong on-chain fundamentals suggest any potential dip might merely pause the bull run—not reverse it completely.
Bitcoin may still climb toward $130K–$150K, possibly higher, as public companies and ETFs continue accumulation. The coming month may be critical—if the cycle ends, it may do so with a whimper, not a crash.
Whether you’re an active trader, long-term investor, or just tracking market cycles—this contrast between fractal-based forecasts and real-world demand underscores why disciplined, data-driven analysis matters more than ever.
