ETF Flows Plummet: A Red Flag in a Bullish Market
In Week 31 (ending July 28, 2025), Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped sharply—down 80% week-over-week—causing concern among investors who view ETF demand as a key bullish indicator insights.glassnode.com+10insights.glassnode.com+10Owler+10. Despite this, on-chain profitability remains elevated and futures positioning stays robust.
This divergence—between weakening traditional capital and strong crypto-native behavior—emerged as the core theme of Glassnode’s BTC Market Pulse: Week 31, raising questions about near-term pressure despite bullish fundamentals AInvest+9insights.glassnode.com+9insights.glassnode.com+9.
Futures Positions Stay Strong
Even as ETFs cool off, traders remain bullish in derivatives markets. Futures open interest is high, and funding rates hover near elevated levels—signaling sustained speculative conviction. This suggests that while newer institutional flows may have slowed, crypto-native traders continue expecting further upside insights.glassnode.com.
On‑Chain Profitability Defies Market Flow Weakness
On-chain metrics continue to reflect profitability. A large portion of holders remain in profit, and realized profit/loss ratios show holders are still seeing gains. This underpins a resilient base of long-term investors who aren’t yet cashing out X (formerly Twitter)+6insights.glassnode.com+6insights.glassnode.com+6.
Even amid the ETF slowdown, the level of realized profits and network health remains strong—another sign this isn’t a weakening regime but a healthy consolidation phase.
Package of Mixed Signals: Market Pulse Themes
1. ETF vs. Spot Divergence
ETF inflows were disproportionately lower this week, while spot demand and futures activity continued at elevated levels. This mismatch underscores a temporary pause in mainstream capital arrival rather than an end to bullish sentiment insights.glassnode.com.
2. Supply–Demand Balance
Profitability indicators like NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) remain high, suggesting holders aren’t yet moving coins to exchanges. Meanwhile, exchange balances continue trending lower, implying more coins are being accumulated off-exchange insights.glassnode.com+1insights.glassnode.com+1.
3. Accumulation Stays Intact
Bitcoin’s supply now shows evidence of macro accumulation resuming post-May sell-off, supported by metrics like Liveliness and entity-adjusted liveliness metrics insights.glassnode.com. These reflect coins being hodled for the long term—not redistributed.
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- Bitcoin Market Pulse Week 31
- ETF inflows down 80%
- On‑chain profitability elevated
- Futures open interest strong
- Bitcoin supply dynamics
- Institutional vs crypto-native flows
Why This Matters for Investors
- ETF Softness Doesn’t Equal Weakness
While ETF inflows have cooled dramatically, futures and spot activity remain firm. This suggests ongoing investor confidence that’s simply shifting from macro to crypto-focused players. - Strong Holder Conviction
Elevated profitability, decreasing exchange balances, and coin accumulation point to long-term holder strength, providing a buffer against downsides. - Potential for Bounce-back
If ETF inflows resume, the current setup could reignite momentum. But even if they don’t, on-chain and derivatives strength may sustain price pressure.
Final Thoughts
Glassnode’s Market Pulse Week 31 highlights a market split: ETF demand has softened by 80%, raising caution, yet on-chain metrics and futures activity remain elevated, pointing toward underlying strength.
This mix—temporary ETF slowdown combined with resilient trader conviction—suggests Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, not a reversal. Smart money continues to accumulate off-exchange, profits stay healthy, and derivatives bettors are still positioned for a rally.
Investors should brace for volatility but take confidence from the healthy on-chain structure. If ETF flows return, momentum could accelerate. For now, the market is balancing between normalcy and opportunity.
